Modeling the Deformation Regime of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, Using a Simple Flow Relation for Ice Anisotropy (ESTAR)
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Ice deformation dominates the evolution of ice shelf flow and the slow‐moving regions in the interior of ice sheets. However, deformation may be poorly represented in large‐scale ice sheet models that use the Glen flow relation, due to its questionable applicability to the steady‐state flow of anisotropic ice that prevails in ice sheets, having been derived from secondary creep rates of isotropic ice. We assess the deformation regimes of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, using the Glen and “Empirical Scalar Tertiary Anisotropy Regime”, (ESTAR) flow relations, the latter being derived from steady‐state deformation rates of anisotropic ice. For grounded ice, the character of the flow relation determines the contribution of deformation to overall flow, with ESTAR producing greater bed‐parallel shear deformation than the standard Glen flow relation. The ESTAR experiments show larger basal shear stress maxima than the standard Glen experiment because ESTAR treats the responses to simple shear stresses and compression stresses differently, reducing the role of lateral and longitudinal stresses in momentum balance. On the Thwaites Glacier Tongue, ESTAR provides the best match to observed speeds by accounting for the differing effects of stresses on ice flow. Our results highlight the importance of the numerical description of anisotropy, particularly: In regions of transition from deformation‐dominated to sliding‐dominated flow; in the approach to the grounding line, and across ice shelves. Given the importance of these locations in determining mass flux into the ocean, our results have implications for projections of sea level change from Antarctic ice loss.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".