Demographic implications of lead poisoning for eagles across North America
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Lead poisoning occurs worldwide in populations of predatory birds, but exposure rates and population impacts are known only from regional studies. We evaluated the lead exposure of 1210 bald and golden eagles from 38 US states across North America, including 620 live eagles. We detected unexpectedly high frequencies of lead poisoning of eagles, both chronic (46 to 47% of bald and golden eagles, as measured in bone) and acute (27 to 33% of bald eagles and 7 to 35% of golden eagles, as measured in liver, blood, and feathers). Frequency of lead poisoning was influenced by age and, for bald eagles, by region and season. Continent-wide demographic modeling suggests that poisoning at this level suppresses population growth rates for bald eagles by 3.8% (95% confidence interval: 2.5%, 5.4%) and for golden eagles by 0.8% (0.7%, 0.9%). Lead poisoning is an underappreciated but important constraint on continent-wide populations of these iconic protected species.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it