A215 CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY IN PATIENTS WITH CIRRHOSIS: A POPULATION-BASED COHORT STUDY
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Cirrhosis is a major global health concern with increasing mortality secondary to cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases observed both in the United States and Canada. However, population-level causes of death among patients with cirrhosis in North America have not been reported. Aims The aim of this study was to describe cause-specific mortality in patients with cirrhosis stratified by cirrhosis etiology. Methods Retrospective cohort study using linked administrative healthcare data from Ontario, Canada. Adult patients with cirrhosis 2000/01/01-2017/12/31 were identified and etiology of liver disease was assigned as hepatitis C (HCV), hepatitis B (HBV), alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), or autoimmune liver disease (AI)/other using validated algorithms for cirrhosis (sensitivity [sn] 99%, specificity [sp] 79%) and cirrhosis etiology (sn 75%-97%, sp 95%-100%). Patients were followed until death, liver transplant, or end of study. The primary outcome of cause of death was defined based on the top 10 causes of death reported by Statistics Canada; however, hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma were included in liver-related deaths as opposed to malignant neoplasms. The proportion of deaths by each cause was described, stratified by cirrhosis etiology. The cumulative incidence of death with liver transplant and hepatocellular carcinoma as competing risks were calculated at 1, 5 and 10 years. Results 202,022 patients with cirrhosis were identified (60% male sex, median age 56 years [IQR 46–67], 52% NAFLD, 26% ALD, 11% HCV, 5% HBV, 6% AI/Other). Overall, 81,428 (40%) patients died after a median follow-up of 5 years (IQR 2–12) and 3,024 (2%) patients received liver transplant. The overall leading cause of death was liver-related (32%) but varied substantially by cirrhosis etiology. Liver-related deaths were highest among those with viral hepatitis (HBV 56%, HCV 52%), and lowest in NAFLD (20%). In NAFLD cirrhosis, the most common causes of death were non-hepatic malignancy (26%), followed by a composite of cardiovascular disease, cerebrovascular disease, or diabetes (22%). Conclusions Although the overall leading cause of death in patients with cirrhosis is liver-related, the most common causes of mortality in patients with NAFLD cirrhosis is non-hepatic malignancy, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes. This supports the involvement of multidisciplinary teams and healthcare providers for patients with NAFLD cirrhosis to optimize appropriate cancer screening and management of co-morbid cardiovascular and metabolic conditions. Funding Agencies None
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".