Control charts for chronic disease surveillance: testing algorithm sensitivity to changes in data coding
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Algorithms used to identify disease cases in administrative health data may be sensitive to changes in the data over time. Control charts can be used to assess how variations in administrative health data impact the stability of estimated trends in incidence and prevalence for administrative data algorithms. We compared the stability of incidence and prevalence trends for multiple juvenile diabetes algorithms using observed-expected control charts. METHODS: Eighteen validated algorithms for juvenile diabetes were applied to administrative health data from Manitoba, Canada between 1975 and 2018. Trends in disease incidence and prevalence for each algorithm were modelled using negative binomial regression and generalized estimating equations; model-predicted case counts were plotted against observed counts. Control limits were set as predicted case count ±0.8*standard deviation. Differences in the frequency of out-of-control observations for each algorithm were assessed using McNemar's test with Holm-Bonferroni adjustment. RESULTS: The proportion of out-of-control observations for incidence and prevalence ranged from 0.57 to 0.76 and 0.45 to 0.83, respectively. McNemar's test revealed no difference in the frequency of out-of-control observations across algorithms. A sensitivity analysis with relaxed control limits (2*standard deviation) detected fewer out-of-control years (incidence 0.19 to 0.33; prevalence 0.07 to 0.52), but differences in stability across some algorithms for prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Our study using control charts to compare stability of trends in incidence and prevalence for juvenile diabetes algorithms found no differences for disease incidence. Differences were observed between select algorithms for disease prevalence when using wider control limits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.198 | 0.460 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; the direct Gemma label and the distilled Codex classifier agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".