How Does COVID-19 Affect Traffic on Highway Network: Evidence from Yunnan Province, China
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and antipandemic policies have significantly impacted highway transportation. Many studies have been conducted to quantify these impacts. However, quantitative analysis of the impacts on province-wide traffic in developing countries, such as China, is still inadequate. This paper tried to fill this gap by proposing equations to quantify the traffic variations of overall province-wide traffic and to analyze the intercity bus traffic variation and intercity bus usage, applying the K-means cluster method to conduct the analysis of traffic reductions in regions with different levels of economic development, and using the hypothesis testing for traffic recovery analysis. It is found that passenger vehicle traffic and truck traffic dropped by 59.67% and 68.19% during the outbreak, respectively. The intercity bus traffic on highways declined by 59.8% to 98.6%, and the intercity bus usage dropped by 55.6% on average. For traffic reductions in different regions, the higher the GDP per capita was, the more the traffic was affected by the pandemic. In regions with lower GDP per capita, traffic variations were minor. It is also found that the passenger vehicle traffic went through four stages in 99 days: the Decline Stage, Rapid Recovery Stage, Slow Recovery Stage, and Normal Stage, while truck traffic only experienced the Decline Stage, Rapid Recovery Stage, and Normal Stage and took 51 days to recover to the Normal Stage. In the Rapid Recovery Stage, the recovery rates were 15.6% and 12.9% per week for passenger vehicle traffic and truck traffic, respectively, and the recovery rate was only 2.1% for passenger vehicle traffic in the Slow Recovery Stage. Despite the recovery of traffic volumes, neither passenger-kilometers nor tonne-kilometers of freight in 2020 reached the same level as in 2019. These findings help the understanding of the pandemic’s impacts on highway traffic for researchers and can provide valuable references for decision-makers to develop antipandemic policies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".