A reactivity model for oxidative addition to palladium enables quantitative predictions for catalytic cross-coupling reactions
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Making accurate, quantitative predictions of chemical reactivity based on molecular structure is an unsolved problem in chemical synthesis, particularly for complex molecules. We report an approach to reactivity prediction for catalytic reactions based on quantitative structure-reactivity models for a key step common to many catalytic mechanisms. We demonstrate this approach with a mechanistically based model for the oxidative addition of (hetero)aryl electrophiles to palladium(0), which is a key step in myriad catalytic processes. This model links simple molecular descriptors to relative rates of oxidative addition for 79 substrates, including chloride, bromide and triflate leaving groups. Because oxidative addition often controls the rate and/or selectivity of palladium-catalyzed reactions, this model can be used to make quantitative predictions about catalytic reaction outcomes. Demonstrated applications include a multivariate linear model for the initial rate of Sonogashira coupling reactions, and successful site-selectivity predictions for Suzuki, Buchwald-Hartwig, and Stille reactions of multihalogenated substrates relevant to the synthesis of pharmaceuticals and natural products.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it