Syphilis in Ottawa: An evolving epidemic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: The incidence of infectious syphilis in Canada has declined throughout the latter decades of the last century; however, in Ottawa, an upsurge in new cases began in 2001. The local epidemic continues to involve predominantly gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM), but in recent years, has expanded further into heterosexual populations. This has coincided with an increase in the number of pregnant women testing positive for syphilis on antenatal screening. The aim of this study is to understand the changing epidemiology in infectious syphilis cases diagnosed in Ottawa to strengthen primary care management and public health response. Methods: Surveillance data from the Ontario Ministry of Health were used to describe the evolving epidemiology of infectious syphilis in the Ottawa region from 2010 to 2019, including a comprehensive chart review of cases from 2015-2019. Results: The number of cases of infectious syphilis in Ottawa rose from 50 cases in 2010 to 171 cases in 2019. These rates were consistently high among males, and increased from 10.9/100,000 in 2010 to 30.9/100,000 in 2019. The rates among females, in comparison, increased from 0.4/100,000 in 2010 to 3.2/100,000 in 2019, with corresponding increases during antenatal screening (with no congenital syphilis cases to date). Conclusion: As the syphilis epidemic continues to evolve in Ottawa, ongoing surveillance plays a crucial role. Public health resources must address the needs of populations already impacted but at the same time be flexible enough to respond to changes in trends and support clinicians providing care to populations where the epidemic is emerging.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".