Bibliographic record
Abstract
In recent decades, the relationship between the average length of life for those who die in the first year of life-the life table quantity a10-and the level of infant mortality, on which its calculation is often based, has broken down. The very low levels of infant mortality in the developed world correspond to a range of a10 quantities. We illustrate the competing effect of falling mortality and reduction in preterm births on a10 through two populations with very different levels of premature birth-infants born to non-Hispanic White mothers and infants born to non-Hispanic Black mothers in the United States-using linked birth and infant death cohort data. Through simulation, we further demonstrate that falling mortality reduces a10, while a reduction in premature births increases it. We use these observations to motivate the formulation of a new approximation formula for a10 in low-mortality contexts, which aims to incorporate differences in preterm birth through a proxy measure-the ratio of infant to under-five mortality. Models are built and tested using data from the Human Mortality Database. Model results and validation show that the newly proposed model outperforms existing alternatives.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.021 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".