Local population collapse of Ross's and lesser snow geese driven by failing recruitment and diminished philopatry
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dynamics of free‐ranging animal populations can result from complex interplays of survival, recruitment and movement. Yet incomplete understanding of demography impedes conservation strategies intended to modify population dynamics of focal species. We estimated survival and per capita production of young, as well as emigration and immigration, from 1997 to 2017 in Ross's goose Anser rossii and lesser snow goose Anser caerulescens caerulescens , which are sympatric species of migratory birds that nest in the central Canadian Arctic at one of the largest breeding colonies in North America. We formed age‐structured integrated population models (IPMs) for each species that jointly analyzed live and dead encounter data as well as breeding adult population size and fecundity data to understand drivers of population dynamics. We compared the demography between species because both species increased during the 1990s and early 2000s yet thereafter snow geese declined, while Ross's geese continued to increase, then stabilized and similarly declined. Declines in Ross's and snow goose populations were caused by reduced per capita production of young, and juvenile survival, as well as increased adult and juvenile emigration. Stronger declines in juvenile survival in snow geese explain their earlier population decline compared to Ross's geese. Despite the divergence in population trends in Ross's and snow geese, we found strong synchrony in demographic rates which suggested substantial emigration from this colony and similar responses to environmental conditions. Direct estimation of demographic patterns in the IPM framework permitted hypothesis testing and inference about the role of immigration, even though immigrant sources were unsampled. We provide a novel m‐array implementation specific to a multi‐state Burnham model which greatly improved computational efficiency and convergence of posterior estimates. Our findings are an important reminder of the role that permanent movements can play in animal demography and metapopulation structure.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".