Personalized Risk Model and Leveraging of Magnetic Resonance Imaging–Based Structural Phenotypes and Clinical Factors to Predict Incidence of Radiographic Osteoarthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Our study aimed to investigate the association between time to incidence of radiographic osteoarthritis (OA) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based structural phenotypes proposed by the Rapid Osteoarthritis MRI Eligibility Score (ROAMES). METHODS: A retrospective cohort of 2,328 participants without radiographic OA at baseline were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative study. Utilizing a deep-learning model, we automatically assessed the presence of inflammatory, meniscus/cartilage, subchondral bone, and hypertrophic phenotypes from MRIs acquired at baseline and 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, and 96-month follow-up visits. In addition to 4 structural phenotypes, we examined severe knee injury history and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores as time dependent. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to analyze the association between 4 structural phenotypes and radiographic OA disease-free survival, both univariate and adjusted for known risk factors including age, sex, race, body mass index, presence of Heberden's nodes, and knee malalignment. RESULTS: Inflammatory (hazard ratio [HR] 3.37 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 2.45-4.63]), meniscus/cartilage (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.21-1.98]), and subchondral bone (HR 1.84 [95% CI 1.63-2.09]) phenotypes were associated with time to radiographic OA at P < 0.05 when adjusted for the risk factors. Sex was a modifier of hypertrophic phenotype association with time to radiographic OA. Female participants with the hypertrophic phenotype were associated with 2.8 times higher risk of radiographic OA (95% CI 2.25-7.54) compared to male participants without the hypertrophic phenotype. CONCLUSION: Four ROAMES phenotypes may contribute to time to radiographic OA incidence and if validated could be used as a promising tool for personalized OA management.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".