Modelling Subglacial Hydrology under Future Climate Scenarios in Wilkes Subglacial Basin, Antarctica
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have differing climates, which makes surface melt a significant hydrological source in Greenland but not currently in Antarctica. Due to changing climate and warming air temperatures, Antarctica is predicted to experience more surface meltwater in the future. This will likely lead to surface features common in Greenland today, such as supraglacial lakes and moulins, to also form over grounded ice in Antarctica. Moulins in particular are important because they will route this surface melt into basal drainage networks. The resulting change in subglacial drainage characteristics and water volumes will potentially have far-reaching impacts on ice dynamics, ice shelf melt, grounding line stability, and ultimately global sea level rise. To examine this, we model the hydrological system in Wilkes Subglacial Basin, East Antarctica with the future climate in mind by incorporating moulins and surface melt to try to understand the impact that this will have on ice sheet and ice shelf dynamics. We use predictive data generated by the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) for surface runoff in Antarctica for the year 2100 as inputs to the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) subglacial hydrology model. We compare the modelling results from two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Moulin locations are predicted using current strain rates along preferential surface hydrology flow pathways and we also compare modelling results with different numbers and locations of moulins. Preliminary results show that even under the lower RCP 2.6 scenario, surface water input significantly alters basal drainage rates, channel extent, and water pressure near the grounding line. The changes are focussed during the modelled summer melt season with the hydrological system settling towards its current state over winter. This demonstrates that the future state of the climate will have an impact on the subglacial hydrology of Antarctica and, in turn, on ice flow speeds and ice shelf melt rates near the grounding line.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".