Job Creation in Colombia Versus the USA: ‘Up‐or‐out Dynamics’ Meet ‘The Life Cycle of Plants’
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
One of the most striking contrasts between the anatomies of the business sectors in higher‐ versus lower‐income economies is the overwhelming dominance of very small production units in the latter. Contrasting manufacturing sector data for Colombia and the USA, we show that weaker ‘up‐or‐out’ dynamics are behind this pattern and behind weaker average lifecycle growth. Dampened growth dynamics, not only in terms of upward mobility but also for exit and downward mobility, characterize both micro‐establishments and young establishments in Colombia relative to their US counterparts. These patterns lead to a more dominant role of small older businesses in accounting for employment. Since dynamic selection among startups is a crucial driver of productivity growth in the USA, our findings point to a shortage of high‐growth entrepreneurship and a relative high likelihood of long‐run survival for small, likely unproductive plants, as two key elements at the heart of the development problem. We also show that analysis of establishment lifecycle dynamics based solely on cross‐sectional data substantially underestimates lifecycle growth.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it