From multiple aspect trajectories to predictive analysis: a case study on fishing vessels in the Northern Adriatic sea
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In this paper we model spatio-temporal data describing the fishing activities in the Northern Adriatic Sea over four years. We build, implement and analyze a database based on the fusion of two complementary data sources: trajectories from fishing vessels (obtained from terrestrial Automatic Identification System, or AIS, data feed) and fish catch reports (i.e., the quantity and type of fish caught) of the main fishing market of the area. We present all the phases of the database creation, starting from the raw data and proceeding through data exploration, data cleaning, trajectory reconstruction and semantic enrichment. We implement the database by using MobilityDB, an open source geospatial trajectory data management and analysis platform. Subsequently, we perform various analyses on the resulting spatio-temporal database, with the goal of mapping the fishing activities on some key species, highlighting all the interesting information and inferring new knowledge that will be useful for fishery management. Furthermore, we investigate the use of machine learning methods for predicting the Catch Per Unit Effort (CPUE), an indicator of the fishing resources exploitation in order to drive specific policy design. A variety of prediction methods, taking as input the data in the database and environmental factors such as sea temperature, waves height and Clorophill-a, are put at work in order to assess their prediction ability in this field. To the best of our knowledge, our work represents the first attempt to integrate fishing ships trajectories derived from AIS data, environmental data and catch data for spatio-temporal prediction of CPUE – a challenging task.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".