The FE-M Task Force: 3D modelling of THM repository induced effects in the Full-scale Emplacement Experiment (FE) – Mont Terri Rock Laboratory. Current status and the path forward.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The construction and operational phases of a deep geological repository imply potential perturbations of the host rock, so-called Repository Induced Effects (RIE). Amongst them, spent fuel and high level waste (SF/HLW) produce decay heat even after long times of cooling, which may impair the long-term safety of the Engineered Barrier System and of the geological barrier. The Opalinus Clay (OPA), is currently being assessed as host rock for the deep geological repository in Switzerland. OPA is an indurated clay of Jurassic age (ca. 180 My), whose main features are (1) a very low hydraulic conductivity, (2) an excellent retention capacity for dissolved radionuclides, and (3) a significant self-sealing capacity. The on-going Full-scale Emplacement (FE) Experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory simulates, as realistically as possible, the construction, waste emplacement, backfilling and early-stage post-closure evolution of a single SF/HLW emplacement tunnel in OPA, using heaters instead of disposal canisters. The main goal of the FE experiment is the investigation of RIE on the host rock (and, to a lesser extent, on the the backfill material) at true scale and the validation of existing coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models. In this context, Nagra has developed a new RD&D initiative, i.e., the FE modelling Task Force (FE-M TF), which involves three modelling teams with corresponding software packages (Code Aster, Code Bright and OpenGeoSys). So far, the TF has defined three main tasks: Code comparison and calculation verification: the TF designed a simplified (though realistic) 3D conceptual model of the FE experiment that includes the actual geometry of the main elements, materials and phases of the FE experiment, including tunnel excavation and ventilation. Such conceptual model was implemented by the modelling teams. Finally, code outputs were analysed and compared by the TF. Back-analyses of THM-observations in the host rock: monitoring data from radial and oblique boreholes around the backfilled FE tunnel are used for model calibration, including the derivation of parameter best estimates and inherent uncertainties, and model Model validation in the context of a prediction-evaluation exercise: the evolution of the THM conditions in the rock in response to a change of thermal loads (e.g., increase/decrease of heater output) will be predicted using the calibrated models. Finally, model predictions will be validated in the near future using the acquired measurements. This presentation summarizes the current status of Tasks 1 and 2 and the path forward to Task 3.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.025 | 0.009 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".