Evaluating the Increased Burden of Cardiorespiratory Illness Visits to Adult Emergency Departments During Flu and Bronchiolitis Outbreaks in the Pediatric Population: Retrospective Multicentric Time Series Analysis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiorespiratory decompensation (CRD) visits have a profound effect on adult emergency departments (EDs). Respiratory pathogens like respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza virus are common reasons for increased activity in pediatric EDs and are associated with CRD in the adult population. Given the seasonal aspects of such challenging pathology, it would be advantageous to predict their variations. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to evaluate the increased burden of CRD in adult EDs during flu and bronchiolitis outbreaks in the pediatric population. METHODS: An ecological study was conducted, based on admissions to the adult ED of the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire (CHU) of Grenoble and Saint Etienne from June 29, 2015 to March 22, 2020. The outbreak periods for bronchiolitis and flu in the pediatric population were defined with a decision-making support tool, PREDAFLU, used in the pediatric ED. A Kruskal-Wallis variance analysis and a Spearman monotone dependency were performed in order to study the relationship between the number of adult ED admissions for the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes related to cardiorespiratory diagnoses and the presence of an epidemic outbreak as defined with PREDAFLU. RESULTS: =126.67, P<.001) and were quite dependent in both hospital settings (CHU Saint Etienne: Spearman ρ=0.64; CHU Grenoble: Spearman ρ=0.71). The increase in ED occupancy for these pathologies was also significantly related to the pediatric respiratory infection outbreaks. These 2 criteria gave an idea of the increased workload in the ED due to CRD during the bronchiolitis and flu outbreaks in the pediatric population. CONCLUSIONS: This study established that CRD visits and bed occupancy for adult EDs were significantly increased during bronchiolitis and pediatric influenza outbreaks. Therefore, a prediction tool for these outbreaks such as PREDAFLU can be used to provide early warnings of increased activity in adult EDs for CRD visits.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".