The influence of Earth’s hypsometry on global sea level through a glacial cycle and into the future
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Earth’s topography and bathymetry is shaped by a complex interplay between solid-Earth processes that deform the Earth from within and the surface processes that modify the outer shape of the Earth. At the surface, an ultimate baselevel set by global sea level marks the defining transition from erosion to deposition. Over geological time scales, this baselevel has resulted in a distinct hypsometric distribution (distribution of surface area with elevation), with the highest concentration of surface area focused in a narrow elevation range near present-day sea level. This particular feature in Earth’s hypsometry makes the global land fraction very sensitive to changes in sea level. Indeed, a sea-level change will result in a significant change in the land fraction as dictated by the hypsometric distribution, thereby modulating the very same sea-level change. However, it remains unexplored exactly how sea-level changes have modified the global land fraction over past glacial cycles and into the future. Here we analyse how Earth’s hypsometry has changed over the last glacial cycle as large ice sheets waxed and waned particularly in Scandinavia and North America. These changes in global ice volume resulted in a significant global excursion in sea level, modulated regionally by solid-Earth deformation, gravitational effects, and effects from Earth’s rotation. These changes modified Earth’s hypsometry, and therefore the global land fraction at any given time. Consequently, we can map out how Earth’s hypsometry has influenced global mean sea level (GMSL) over time. To examine this relationship between Earth’s hypsometry and sea level further, we look to the deep future, to a scenario where both the Greenland Ice Sheet and the Antarctic Ice Sheets will melt away completely over multi-millennial timescales. This scenario is not meant to represent a realistic future scenario per se, but it allows us to define the hypsometric GMSL correction needed for any GMSL that the Earth has experienced recently or will experience in the future.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".