Drivers and consequences of a stronger mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, ~3.3 – 3 Ma) is the most recent geological period with a CO2 concentration similar to the present day (~400 ppm). The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) focuses on the KM5c time slice (3.205 Ma), giving insight into the climate dynamics of this period. Sea surface temperature (SST) proxies indicate amplified warming over the North Atlantic in the mPWP with respect to the pre-industrial period, which may be linked to an intensified Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Zhang et al. (2021) reported a stronger mPWP AMOC in all the PlioMIP2 simulations but found no consistent relation to either the Atlantic northward ocean heat transport (OHT) or average North Atlantic SSTs. We therefore look further into the drivers and consequences of a stronger AMOC in the mPWP compared to pre-industrial simulations. Within the PlioMIP2 ensemble, we find that all model simulations with a closed Bering Strait and Canadian Archipelago show strongly reduced freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. The resulting increase in sea surface salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic and Labrador Sea stimulates deepwater formation in these areas. The stronger AMOC is therefore primarily a response to the closure of the Arctic gateways. We also look at the different components of the Atlantic OHT, associated with either the overturning circulation or the wind-driven gyre circulation. While the ensemble mean of the overturning component is increased significantly in magnitude in the mPWP, it is partly compensated by a reduced gyre component. Our results point towards a complex interplay between atmospheric and oceanic processes and indicate that considering these components separately allows for a better understanding of the climatic response to the AMOC strength.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".