Climate change effects on the global distribution and range shifts of citrus longhorned beetle <i>Anoplophora chinensis</i>
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The citrus longhorned beetle (CLB) ( Anoplophora chinensis ) is an important quarantine pest of main Citrus crops. Its potential distribution and invasion under climate change scenarios have important economic implications for many countries. We used the ensemble maps from both the CLIMEX and MaxEnt models to obtain CLB’s potential distribution in climate‐suitable regions under historical and future climate conditions. Global broadleaved forest cover was overlaid with CLB’s ensemble distributions to further assess the effects of host range. The ensemble models’ projected climate‐suitable regions by 2040–2060 and 2060–2070 under different emission scenarios were used to analyze range shifts. Our results indicate that projected climate‐suitable regions of the CLIMEX are much wider than that of the MaxEnt, but both of them would lose areas with climate change. The global ensemble distributions of CLB concentrated in eastern Asia, central and western Europe and eastern North America, and would shift northward in the future time. Broadleaved forests would cover most of the projected climate‐suitable regions, which provide essential hosts for CLB’s establishment. The ensemble predictive results from the correlative model and mechanistic model highlight the necessity of increasing control, monitoring and quarantine efforts on the pest in the threatened areas.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".