Multiply robust subgroup analysis based on a single‐index threshold linear marginal model for longitudinal data with dropouts
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Identifying subpopulations that may be sensitive to the specific treatment is an important step toward precision medicine. On the other hand, longitudinal data with dropouts is common in medical research, and subgroup analysis for this data type is still limited. In this paper, we consider a single-index threshold linear marginal model, which can be used simultaneously to identify subgroups with differential treatment effects based on linear combination of the selected biomarkers, estimate the treatment effects in different subgroups based on regression coefficients, and test the significance of the difference in treatment effects based on treatment-subgroup interaction. The regression parameters are estimated by solving a penalized smoothed generalized estimating equation and the selection bias caused by missingness is corrected by a multiply robust weighting matrix, which allows multiple missingness models to be taken account into estimation. The proposed estimator remains consistent when any model for missingness is correctly specified. Under regularity conditions, the asymptotic normality of the estimator is established. Simulation studies confirm the desirable finite-sample performance of the proposed method. As an application, we analyze the data from a clinical trial on pancreatic cancer.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it