Two approaches to survival analysis of open source Python projects
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A recent study applied frequentist survival analysis methods to a subset of the Software Heritage Graph and determined which attributes of an open source software project contribute to its health. This paper serves as an exact replication of that study. In addition, Bayesian survival analysis methods were applied to the same dataset, and an additional project attribute was studied to serve as a conceptual replication. Both analyses focus on the effects of certain attributes on the survival of open-source software projects as measured by their revision activity. Methods such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator, Cox Proportional-Hazards model, and the visualization of posterior survival functions were used for each of the project attributes. The results show that projects which publish major releases, have repositories on multiple hosting services, possess a large team of developers, and make frequent revisions have a higher likelihood of survival in the long run. The findings were similar to the original study; however, a deeper look revealed quantitative inconsistencies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.030 | 0.132 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.010 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".