Analysis of severe illness after post-vaccination COVID-19 breakthrough among adults with and without HIV in the United States
Bibliographic record
Abstract
ABSTRACT Importance Understanding the severity of post-vaccination COVID-19 breakthrough illness among people with HIV (PWH) can inform vaccine guidelines and risk-reduction recommendations. Objective Estimate the rate and risk of severe breakthrough illness among vaccinated PWH and people without HIV (PWoH) who experience a breakthrough infection. Design, setting, and participants The Corona-Infectious-Virus Epidemiology Team (CIVET-II) collaboration consists of four US longitudinal cohorts from integrated health systems and academic centers. Adults (≥18 years old), in-care, fully vaccinated by June 30, 2021 with HIV, and matched PWoH (on date fully vaccinated, age group, race/ethnicity, and sex) were the source population. Those who experienced a post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection were eligible. Severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness was defined as hospitalization due to COVID-19. Discrete time proportional hazards models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals ([,]) of severe breakthrough illness by HIV status adjusting for demographics, COVID-19 vaccine type, and clinical factors. The proportion of patients requiring mechanical ventilation or died was compared by HIV status. Exposure HIV infection Outcome Severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness, defined as hospitalization within 28 days after a breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infection with a primary or secondary COVID-19 discharge diagnosis. Results Among 1,241 PWH and 2,408 PWoH with breakthrough infections, the cumulative incidence of severe illness in the first 28 days was low and comparable between PWoH and PWH (7.3% vs. 6.7%, respectively, risk difference=-0.67% [-2.58%, 1.23%]). The risk of severe breakthrough illness was 59% higher in PWH with CD4 counts <350 cells/mm 3 compared with PWoH (aHR=1.59 [0.99, 2.46]). In multivariable analyses among PWH, being female, older, having a cancer diagnosis, and lower CD4 count increased the risk of severe breakthrough illness, while previous COVID-19 reduced the risk. Among all patients, 10% were mechanically ventilated and 8% died, with no difference by HIV status. Conclusions and Relevance The risk of severe COVID-19 breakthrough illness within 28 days of a breakthrough infection was low among vaccinated PWH and PWoH. However, PWH with moderate and severe immune suppression had a higher risk of severe breakthrough infection. Recommendations for additional vaccine doses and risk-reduction strategies for PWH with moderate immune suppression may be warranted. Key Points Question In 2021, among fully vaccinated people with COVID-19 breakthrough illness, was the risk of severe illness higher in people with HIV (PWH) compared to people without HIV (PWoH)? Findings PWH with <350 cells/mm 3 have a 59% increased risk of severe breakthrough illness compared to PWoH. Meaning Vaccinations effectively reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 infection in both PWH and PWoH; however, PWH having a CD4 count <350 cells/mm 3 are at higher risk of severe breakthrough infection compared to PWoH. PWH with moderate immune suppression should be considered for additional vaccine dosages and other risk-reduction measures.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".