Danger, risk and anti‐predator behavior in the life history of long‐distance migratory sandpipers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Two recent and independent studies both estimate substantially lower survival rates of semipalmated Calidris pusilla than of western C. mauri sandpipers, consistent with the pronounced multi‐decade population decline of the former. Migratory danger has climbed steadily for both these long‐distance migrants since the mid‐1970s as the number of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus increased. These predators are present on the Pacific flyway as co‐migrants and are a natural (though now more abundant) feature of western sandpiper southbound migrations. Adjustments to migratory speed, timing and routing enable them to mitigate the danger. On the Atlantic flyway peregrines were introduced and breeding populations established in the 1980s at key staging areas, creating a novel hazard for southbound semipalmated sandpipers. Adjustments to migratory timing and speed do not aid in eluding such resident predators, and alternative routes are not available. Semipalmated sandpipers as a consequence have few effective defenses to counter this heightened danger, and we hypothesize that migratory mortality has increased, making over‐summering (i.e. skipping a breeding season) more advantageous. The risk effects (i.e. the consequent reduction in population growth rate) so generated are substantial, and may be able to account for a large portion of the population decline.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".