Continuing expansion of Narrow-leaved Cattail (<i>Typha angustifolia</i>) and decline of a provincially rare fen in the Holland Marsh, Ontario
Bibliographic record
Abstract
At the time of European settlement, an extensive graminoid wetland existed at the confluence of the East and West Holland Rivers at the southern end of Lake Simcoe, Ontario. However, by 1925, clearing and draining of the marsh for specialty agriculture (i.e., market gardens) had begun and, by the 1940s, ~46% of the wetland had been cleared and another 13% was lost before 2016. Concurrent with marsh conversion has been an increase in Narrow-leaved Cattail (Typha angustifolia) in the remnant wetland. This study documents the change in the Holland Marsh wetland by delineating boundaries between marsh, fen, and shrub communities on aerial photographs taken at ~10-year intervals between 1946 and 2015 and documenting vegetation change along transects running perpendicular to tributaries bisecting the wetland. The extent of fen habitat within the Holland Marsh has been decreasing since 1946 at an average rate of 0.24 ha/year because of increases in both shrub and marsh (i.e., T. angustifolia) communities. Typha angustifolia expansion has been predominantly from along the margins of the Holland River where soil phosphorus concentration is significantly higher than in the core of the fen. Beyond 30 m from the river, vegetation dominance shifts from T. angustifolia to sedges (Cyperaceae). Managing phosphorus loading from upstream land uses will be of critical importance in protecting this habitat, which is rare in southern Ontario.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".