Aircraft and Satellite Observations of Vortex Evolution and Surface Wind Asymmetry of Concentric Eyewalls in Hurricane Irma
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We compare the vortex evolutions of eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) between the sea-surface and the free-atmosphere levels and investigate the asymmetric structure of concentric eyewalls (CEs) by examining a combination of aircraft observations and surface wind fields derived from C-band spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images during Hurricane Irma (2017) from 4 September 2017 to 8 September 2017. A total of 116 radial wind profiles measured by an aircraft were collected and showed that ERCs occur at both the sea-surface and the free-atmosphere levels. The outer eyewall was shown to form at the free atmospheric level (~3 km) with a narrow structure at the sea-surface level and an outward tilt with height in the cross-section. In our study, four ERC events were determined from wind profile parameters fitted by a modified Rankine vortex model, which was validated by 328 radial legs collected from six hurricanes. The outer eyewall did not replace the inner eyewall at the sea-surface level in the third ERC, due to the maintenance of a short duration and intense original eyewall. Additionally, Irma’s intensity weakened during the fourth ERC rather than re-intensified, because of the generation of a third wind maximum outside the secondary eyewall. Comparisons of five SAR-derived surface wind fields in Irma and another two hurricane cases illustrated that the location of the secondary eyewall generation is a key point in the interpretation of anomaly intensity changes in the fourth ERC.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".