Biomarker A+T−: is this Alzheimer’s disease or not? A combined CSF and pathology study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The biological definition of Alzheimer's disease using CSF biomarkers requires abnormal levels of both amyloid (A) and tau (T). However, biomarkers and corresponding cutoffs may not always reflect the presence or absence of pathology. Previous studies suggest that up to 32% of individuals with autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease show normal CSF p-tau levels in vivo, but these studies are sparse and had small sample sizes. Therefore, in three independent autopsy cohorts, we studied whether or not CSF A+T- excluded Alzheimer's disease based on autopsy. We included 215 individuals, for whom ante-mortem CSF collection and autopsy had been performed, from three cohorts: (i) the Amsterdam Dementia Cohort (ADC) [n = 80, 37 (46%) Alzheimer's disease at autopsy, time between CSF collection and death 4.5 ± 2.9 years]; (ii) the Antwerp Dementia Cohort (DEM) [n = 92, 84 (91%) Alzheimer's disease at autopsy, time CSF collection to death 1.7 ± 2.3 years]; and (iii) the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) [n = 43, 31 (72%) Alzheimer's disease at autopsy, time CSF collection to death 5.1 ± 2.5 years]. Biomarker profiles were based on dichotomized CSF Aβ1-42 and p-tau levels. The accuracy of CSF AT profiles to detect autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease was assessed. Lastly, we investigated whether the concordance of AT profiles with autopsy diagnosis improved when CSF was collected closer to death in 9 (10%) DEM and 30 (70%) ADNI individuals with repeated CSF measurements available. In total, 50-73% of A+T- individuals and 100% of A+T+ individuals had Alzheimer's disease at autopsy. Amyloid status showed the highest accuracy to detect autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease (accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in the ADC: 88%, 92% and 84%; in the DEM: 87%, 94% and 12%; and in the ADNI cohort: 86%, 90% and 75%, respectively). The addition of CSF p-tau did not further improve these estimates. We observed no differences in demographics or degree of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology between A+T- and A+T+ individuals with autopsy-confirmed Alzheimer's disease. All individuals with repeated CSF measurements remained stable in Aβ1-42 status during follow-up. None of the Alzheimer's disease individuals with a normal p-tau status changed to abnormal; however, four (44%) DEM individuals and two (7%) ADNI individuals changed from abnormal to normal p-tau status over time, and all had Alzheimer's disease at autopsy. In summary, we found that up to 73% of A+T- individuals had Alzheimer's disease at autopsy. This should be taken into account in both research and clinical settings.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".