PD26-05 HOW LONG SHOULD WE FOLLOW LOW GRADE TA NON-MUSCLE INVASIVE BLADDER CANCER (NMIBC)? A LARGE RETROSPECTIVE SINGLE INSTITUTION ANALYSIS
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Abstract
You have accessJournal of UrologyCME1 May 2022PD26-05 HOW LONG SHOULD WE FOLLOW LOW GRADE TA NON-MUSCLE INVASIVE BLADDER CANCER (NMIBC)? A LARGE RETROSPECTIVE SINGLE INSTITUTION ANALYSIS Eunice Villegas, Christian Vitug, Katherine Lajkosz, Cynthia Kuk, Bruce Gao, Otto Hemminiki, Dhiral Kot, Shayan Din, Jimmy Misurka, Girish S. Kulkarni, Michael Jewett, Neil E. Fleshner, Theodorus H. van der Kwast, and Alexandre R. Zlotta Eunice VillegasEunice Villegas More articles by this author , Christian VitugChristian Vitug More articles by this author , Katherine LajkoszKatherine Lajkosz More articles by this author , Cynthia KukCynthia Kuk More articles by this author , Bruce GaoBruce Gao More articles by this author , Otto HemminikiOtto Hemminiki More articles by this author , Dhiral KotDhiral Kot More articles by this author , Shayan DinShayan Din More articles by this author , Jimmy MisurkaJimmy Misurka More articles by this author , Girish S. KulkarniGirish S. Kulkarni More articles by this author , Michael JewettMichael Jewett More articles by this author , Neil E. FleshnerNeil E. Fleshner More articles by this author , Theodorus H. van der KwastTheodorus H. van der Kwast More articles by this author , and Alexandre R. ZlottaAlexandre R. Zlotta More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000002574.05AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: Over 50% of Ta low grade (LG) NMIBC will recur during long-term follow up but only a few percent will experience stage progression, metastases and death due to BC. For patients with TaLG NMIBC free of recurrence for 10 years, discontinuation of routine cystoscopic surveillance or replacement with urinary markers and/or ultrasonography has been considered as the recurrence rate drops after 5 years. We investigated the long-term follow-up of TaLG NMIBC to further define the length of monitoring. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 529 patients with primary TaLG NMIBC diagnosed between 1989-2019 and followed until 2021 using patient records and the Bladder Cancer Informatics System at the University Health Network, Canada. We assessed the risk of progression to high grade Ta/T1 NMIBC, progression to muscle-invasive disease, metastasis and risk of death due to BC at 5, 10 and 15 years using cumulative incidence functions. Non-BC death served as a competing risk for death due to BC, and all-cause death served as a competing risk for all other outcomes. RESULTS: Among 529 patients (73% men, median age 67.5 years), 360 (68%) recurred, 50(9%) progressed in stage, 20 (4%) developed metastases and 15 (3%) died from BC. Median follow-up was 9.4 years. 312/360 (87%) patients recurred within the first 5 years. Of the 217 patients who did not recur within the first 5 years, 11 died due to non BC related causes. Of the remaining patients, 48 (9% of the entire cohort) recurred. 36 patients (free of recurrence in the first 5 years) recurred within 10 years of their diagnosis, 9 recurred between 10-15 years and 3 between 15-20 years. Of the 15 patients who succumbed to BC (median 9.6 years; IQR3.6-14.8 years) despite presenting initially with TaLG disease, 80% were men, 10% had associated CIS, 67% had multiple tumors and 80% had tumors <3 cm. The actuarial CSS were 99%, 97% and 96% at 5, 10 and 15 years, respectively, whereas the progression to MIBC or metastases was 3, 5 and 6% at 5, 10 and 15 years. Limitations include the retrospective analysis and results obtained in a tertiary referral center might not be generalizable. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance of patients with TaLG NMIBC should definitely be continued beyond 5 years of follow-up and probably even beyond 10 years. Even after being free of recurrence for 5 years, about 10% of patients will recur. Although the risk is low, about 3% of patients presenting with TaLG NMIBC will eventually die from the disease, most in the intermediate risk category. The term “cancer” for TLGa NMIBC should therefore be kept in our opinion. Source of Funding: N/A © 2022 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 207Issue Supplement 5May 2022Page: e489 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2022 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Eunice Villegas More articles by this author Christian Vitug More articles by this author Katherine Lajkosz More articles by this author Cynthia Kuk More articles by this author Bruce Gao More articles by this author Otto Hemminiki More articles by this author Dhiral Kot More articles by this author Shayan Din More articles by this author Jimmy Misurka More articles by this author Girish S. Kulkarni More articles by this author Michael Jewett More articles by this author Neil E. Fleshner More articles by this author Theodorus H. van der Kwast More articles by this author Alexandre R. Zlotta More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement PDF DownloadLoading ...
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".