A Mixed Ensemble Learning and Time-Series Methodology for Category-Specific Vehicular Energy and Emissions Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The serially-correlated nature of engine operation is overlooked in the vehicular fuel and emission modeling literature. Furthermore, enabling the calibration and use of time-series models for instrument-independent eco-driving applications requires reliable forecast aggregation procedures. To this end, an ensemble time-series machine-learning methodology is developed using data collected through extensive field experiments on a fleet of 35 vehicles. Among other results, it is found that Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture is the best fit for capturing the dynamic and lagged effects of speed, acceleration, and grade on fuel and emission rates. The developed vehicle-specific ensembles outperformed state-of-the-practice benchmark models by a significant margin and the category-specific models outscored the vehicle-specific sub-models by an average margin of 6%. The results qualify the developed ensembles to work as representatives for vehicle categories and allows them to be utilized in both eco-driving services as well as environmental assessment modules.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".