Synchronous Fluctuations of Thick-Billed Murre (Uria Lomvia) Colonies in The Eastern Canadian Arctic Suggest Population Regulation in Winter
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Trends in Thick-billed Murre (Uria lomvia) populations at Prince Leopold Island and Coats Island, Nunavut—colonies at opposite ends of the species range in the eastern Arctic—were compared over the period 1985–2000. Population trends were monitored by daily counts of fixed study plots on six or more days each year. At Coats Island, annual mean counts were well correlated with numbers of breeding pairs located on separate breeding study areas, suggesting that the monitoring counts provided a useful index of the breeding population. Overall, counts at both colonies increased over the period of observations (by 2.1% annually at Coats Island and 1.5% at Prince Leopold Island), but a period of significant decline occurred during 1989–1991 and numbers remained stable after 1998. Fluctuations at the two colonies were well-synchronized. Changes in numbers from year-to-year were positively correlated with the mean mass of breeders during the first half of incubation. Hence, birds appeared to be in poorer condition in years when the population decreased. The similarity in fluctuations at colonies as far apart as Coats and Prince Leopold islands suggests that population changes may be determined by events on the common wintering grounds. The correlation between changes in counts and body mass at Coats Island suggests that the common factor may be one that affects the availability of food during the nonbreeding period.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".