Bibliographic record
Abstract
The outcome for growth in the Euro Area in the first quarter of 2003 was slightly weaker than our April projections. GDP grew by a marginal 0.1 per cent relative to the previous quarter, down from an average of 0.8 per cent over the year 2002 as a whole. The continued appreciation of the euro is largely to blame for this development, taking a toll on exports. The weaker outcome for the first quarter, coupled with the appreciation in the nominal effective exchange rate by about 6.9 per cent in the first half of this year, as well as significantly weaker prospects for private investment dampen the outlook for the year as a whole. Industrial production rose by 0.4 per cent in April, after a decline of 0.7 per cent in March and an increase of 0.3 per cent in February, supporting our expectation that recovery will be only gradual. In light of the most recent evidence, we have cut our estimate for Euro Area growth in 2003 by half, down to just over ½ per cent. However, we continue to anticipate a more pronounced improvement in 2004, as domestic and external demand both strengthen. We expect output growth in the Euro Area to return towards trend levels of about 2½-2¾ per cent per annum from 2005-2009. This is consistent with NIESR's output gap estimates for the Euro Area, which show the economy returning to capacity output in 2005.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.007 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.005 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.046 | 0.019 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".