A DNA investigation into the mysterious disappearance of the Rocky Mountain grasshopper, mega-pest of the 1800s
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The mysterious extinction of the Rocky Mountain Grasshopper, Melanoplus spretus, a major pest species on the prairies and plains of the 1800s, is truly a remarkable event in the history of agriculture. Recently, we obtained specimens of M. spretus from museums and from 400-year-old glacial deposits in Wyoming. We report success in obtaining mitochondrial DNA sequences from both sources. This permitted us to examine two issues surrounding the species’ disappearance. First, a long-standing view that M. spretus and the extant species Melanoplus sanguinipes are (if not phase transforms of one another) sister taxa, is disputed, but cannot be rejected with certainty. Interestingly, there is some evidence that suggests there may be a closer affinity with another member of the Mexicanus species-group, Melanoplus bruneri. Second, because M. spretus still possesses considerable nucleotide diversity (1.15 ± 0.19%), a depletion of variation cannot be considered a factor contributing to its demise.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".