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Record W4248088254 · doi:10.5194/nhess-2021-66-ac1

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2021· peer-review· en· W4248088254 on OpenAlexfundaboutno aff
Benjamin Poschlod

Bibliographic record

Venuenot available
Typepeer-review
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
Topicdemographic modeling and climate adaptation
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersLeibniz-RechenzentrumLeibniz-GemeinschaftBayerisches Landesamt für UmweltBayerisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und VerbraucherschutzEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaBayerische Akademie der WissenschaftenGauss Centre for SupercomputingBundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
KeywordsWeather Research and Forecasting ModelPrecipitationEnvironmental scienceMeteorologyParametrization (atmospheric modeling)ClimatologyOrographic liftAtmospheric sciencesGeographyGeologyPhysics

Abstract

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<strong class="journal-contentHeaderColor">Abstract.</strong> Extreme daily rainfall is an important trigger for floods in Bavaria. The dimensioning of water management structures as well as building codes is based on observational rainfall return levels. In this study, three high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) are employed to produce 10- and 100-year daily rainfall return levels and their performance is evaluated by comparison to observational return levels. The study area is governed by different types of precipitation (stratiform, orographic, convectional) and a complex terrain, with convective precipitation also contributing to daily rainfall levels. The Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 (CRCM5) at a 12 km spatial resolution and the Weather and Forecasting Research (WRF) model at a 5 km resolution both driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data use parametrization schemes to simulate convection. WRF at a 1.5 km resolution driven by ERA5 reanalysis data explicitly resolves convectional processes. Applying the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, the CRCM5 setup can reproduce the observational 10-year return levels with an areal average bias of <span class="inline-formula">+6.6</span> % and a spatial Spearman rank correlation of <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.72</span>. The higher-resolution 5 km WRF setup is found to improve the performance in terms of bias (<span class="inline-formula">+4.7</span> %) and spatial correlation (<span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.82</span>). However, the finer topographic details of the WRF-ERA5 return levels cannot be evaluated with the observation data because their spatial resolution is too low. Hence, this comparison shows no further improvement in the spatial correlation (<span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.82</span>) but a small improvement in the bias (2.7 %) compared to the 5 km resolution setup. Uncertainties due to extreme value theory are explored by employing three further approaches. Applied to the WRF-ERA5 data, the GEV distributions with a fixed shape parameter (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+2.5</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.79</span>) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+2.9</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.81</span>) show almost equivalent results for the 10-year return period, whereas the metastatistical extreme value (MEV) distribution leads to a slight underestimation (bias is <span class="inline-formula">−7.8</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.84</span>). For the 100-year return level, however, the MEV distribution (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+2.7</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.73</span>) outperforms the GEV distribution (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+13.3</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.66</span>), the GEV distribution with fixed shape parameter (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+12.9</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.70</span>), and the GP distribution (bias is <span class="inline-formula">+11.9</span> %; <span class="inline-formula"><i>ρ</i>=0.63</span>). Hence, for applications where the return period is extrapolated, the MEV framework is recommended. From these results, it follows that high-resolution regional climate models are suitable for generating spatially homogeneous rainfall return level products. In regions with a sparse rain gauge density or low spatial representativeness of the stations due to complex topography, RCMs can support the observational data. Further, RCMs driven by global climate models with emission scenarios can project climate-change-induced alterations in rainfall return levels at regional to local scales. This can allow adjustment of structural design and, therefore, adaption to future precipitation conditions.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.005
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.006
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Not applicable · Consensus signal: Not applicable
GenreCandidate signal: Other · Consensus signal: Other
Teacher disagreement score0.205
Threshold uncertainty score0.997

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0050.006
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0010.001
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0150.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.286
GPT teacher head0.459
Teacher spread0.172 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designNot applicable
Domainnot available
GenreOther

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

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Citations0
Published2021
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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