Bibliographic record
Abstract
Our projection for GDP growth in the US this year, at 2.4 per cent, is broadly unchanged relative to April. However, the underlying composition of GDP has shifted toward stronger consumer spending, weaker business investment and weaker trade growth. Stronger consumption stems from the implementation of the fiscal package that was approved by Congress in May. Downward revisions to investment and trade growth reflect the unexpectedly sharp declines recorded in the first quarter of the year. Business investment declined by 1.1 per cent in the first quarter, while the volume of exports of goods and services fell by 0.3 per cent and imports fell by 1.6 per cent. This weak outcome is thought to reflect the high level of uncertainty faced in the run up to the war in Iraq. As this uncertainty has now receded to a large degree, some recovery is anticipated in the second quarter. Monthly indicators suggest that consumer demand remained strong in the second quarter of 2003, although industrial production declined and business orders have continued to disappoint. The volume of exports in the three months to May were 9.2 per cent higher than in the previous three months, while imports rose by 7.4 per cent, pointing to a marked revival of trade in the second quarter. Despite the recovery of trade and positive outlook for consumer spending, the bleaker outlook for investment has caused us to revise our projections for GDP growth in 2004 down by ½ percentage point to 3 per cent. We have also revised down our projections for average GDP growth between 2005-2009 to 2.3 per cent per annum, as higher inflation and planned tax rises will weigh on consumer spending.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".