Changes in stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient after the 2018 Ambae eruption as seen by OMPS-LP and ECHAM5-HAM
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Stratospheric aerosols are an important component of the climate system. They not only change the radiative budget of the Earth but also play an essential role in ozone depletion. Most noticeable those effects are after volcanic eruptions when SO2 injected with the eruption reaches the stratosphere, oxidizes and forms stratospheric aerosol. There have been several studies, where a volcanic eruption plume and the associated radiative forcing were analyzed using climate models. Besides, volcanic eruptions were studied using the data from satellite measurements; however, studies combining both models and measurement data are rare. In this paper, we compared changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption observed by satellite remote sensing measurements and by a global aerosol model. We use vertical profiles of aerosol extinction coefficient at 869 nm retrieved at IUP Bremen from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite – Limb Profiler) observations. Here, we present the retrieval algorithm as well as a comparison of the obtained profiles with those from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III onboard International Space Station). The observed differences are within 25 % for the most latitude bins, which indicates a reasonable quality of the retrieved limb aerosol extinction product. The volcanic plume evolution is investigated using both: monthly mean aerosol extinction coefficients and 10-day averaged data. The measurement results were compared with the model output from ECHAM5-HAM. In order to simulate the eruption accurately, we use SO2 injections estimates from OMPS and OMI for the first phase of eruption and TROPOMI for the second phase. Generally, the agreement between the vertical and geographical distribution of the aerosol extinction coefficient from OMPS-LP and ECHAM is quite remarkable, in particular, for the second phase. We attribute the good consistency between the model and the measurements to the precise estimation of injected SO2 mass and height as well as through nudging to ECMWF reanalysis data. Additionally, we compared the radiative forcing (RF) caused by the increase of the aerosol loading in the stratosphere after the eruption. After accounting for the uncertainties from different RF calculation methods, the RFs from ECHAM and OMPS-LP agree quite well. We estimate the tropical (20° N to 20° S) RF from the second Ambae eruption to be about −0.13 W/m2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".