07 A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN COLECTOMY RATES FOR COLORECTAL CANCER IN PATIENTS WITH ULCERATIVE COLITIS
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) are at increased risk of developing colorectal cancer. Independent risk factors include age, gender, extent and duration of disease activity, concurrent primary sclerosing cholangitis, a family history of sporadic colorectal cancer and severity of histologic bowel inflammation. Surveillance programs have been introduced to facilitate early detection of pre-malignant lesions, however, the efficacy of these programs have not been established. Technological endoscopic advancements and improved treatment options may also reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer in this population. To explore temporal trends in colectomy rates for colorectal cancer, in patients with ulcerative colitis. A population-based prevalent cohort of patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) from Alberta, Canada (2003-2015) was derived from administrative databases, based on a previously validated method.1 The Discharge Abstract Database (DAD) was used to identify patients admitted for colectomy (Canadian Classification of Health Interventions procedure code (CCI): 1.NM.87, 1.NM.89, 1.NM.91, 1.NQ.89, 1.NQ.90) and with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (International Classification of Disease -10 diagnosis code (ICD-10): C18.X (1-9), C19, C20.) Annual incidence was calculated by dividing the total number of colectomies for cancer by the at risk number of prevalent UC patients each fiscal year. Time trend analysis of colectomy rates for cancer was performed using a generalized linear model, assuming a Poisson distribution, using year of admission as the primary predictor, while adjusting for age and gender. Join-point regression was used to identify significant inflection points in temporal trends. 112 patients with ulcerative colitis underwent a colectomy for colorectal cancer between 2003 and 2015, with an average annual colectomy rate of 1.32 per 1000 UC patients at risk. Average annual colectomy rates were higher in males and in increasing age categories. (Table 1) There was a significant reduction in colectomy rates over time. (IRR= 0.914, 95% CI: 0.868-0.961, p<0.001) (Figure 1) No significant inflection points were identified with join-point regression analysis. There has been a significant decline in colectomy rates for colorectal cancer in patients with ulcerative colitis, with an annual reduction of 8.6%, between 2003 and 2015. This is likely attributable to development and utilisation of surveillance programs and improvements in treatment options for patients with UC. 1. Rezaie A, Quan H, Fedorak RN, Panaccione R, Hilsden RJ. Development and validation of an administrative case definition for inflammatory bowel diseases. Canadian Journal of Gastroenterology 2012;26(10):711-717.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".