An Exploration of Fractal Based Prognostic Model and Comparative Analysis for Second Wave of COVID-19 Diffusion
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has fatalized 216 countries across the world and has claimed the lives of millions of people globally. Researches are being carried out worldwide by scientists to understand the nature of this catastrophic virus and find a potential vaccine for it. The most possible efforts have been taken to present this paper as a form of contribution to the understanding of this lethal virus in the first and second wave. This paper presents a unique technique for the methodical comparison of disastrous virus dissemination in two waves amid five most infested countries and the death rate of the virus in order to attain a clear view on the behaviour of the spread of the disease. For this study, the dataset of the number of deaths per day and the number of infected cases per day of the most affected countries, The United States of America, Brazil, Russia, India, and The United Kingdom have been considered in first and second wave. The correlation fractal dimension has been estimated for the prescribed datasets of COVID-19 and the rate of death has been compared based on the correlation fractal dimension estimate curve. The statistical tool, analysis of variance has also been used to support the performance of the proposed method. Further, the prediction of the daily death rate has been demonstrated through the autoregressive moving average model. In addition, this study also emphasis a feasible reconstruction of the death rate based on the fractal interpolation function. Subsequently, the normal probability plot is portrayed for the original data and the predicted data, derived through the fractal interpolation function to estimate the accuracy of the prediction. Finally, this paper neatly summarized with the comparison and prediction of epidemic curve of the first and second waves of COVID-19 pandemic to picturize the transmission rate in the both times.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".