Brief communication "Important role of the mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation in the recent surface melt increase over the Greenland ice sheet"
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Since 2007, there has been a succession of surface melt records over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in continuity of the trend observed since the end of the 1990s towards increasing melt. But, these last two decades are characterized by an increase of negative phases of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) favouring warmer and drier summers than normal over GrIS. In this context, we use a circulation type classification based on the daily 500 hPa geopotential height to evaluate the role of the atmospheric dynamics in this surface melt acceleration since 20 yr. Due to the lack of direct observations, the interannual melt variability is gauged here by the summer (June-July-August) mean temperature at 700 hPa over Greenland; analogous atmospheric circulations in the past show that ~70% of the 1992–2011 warming at 700 hPa over Greenland has been driven by changes in the atmospheric flow frequencies. Indeed, the occurrence of anticyclones in surface and at 500 hPa centred over the GrIS has doubled since the end of 1990s which induces southerly warm air advection along the Western Greenland coast and over the neighbouring Canadian islands. These changes in the NAO modes explain also why no significant warming has been observed these last five summers over Svalbard, where northerly atmospheric flows are more frequent than before. Therefore, the recent warmer summers over Greenland, Ellesmere and Baffin Islands can not be considered as a long term climate warming but are more rather a consequence of the NAO variability impacting the atmospheric heat transport. While no global model from the CMIP5 database projects consequent changes in NAO through this century, we can not exclude that these changes in NAO are due to global warming.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.023 | 0.004 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".