Modeling of stability of gas hydrates under permafrost in an environment of surface climatic change – terrestrial case, Beaufort-Mackenzie basin, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract. Modeling of the onset of permafrost formation and succeeding gas hydrate formation in the changing surface temperature environment has been done for the Beaufort-Mackenzie Basin (BMB). Numerical 1-D modeling is constrained by deep heat flow from deep well bottom hole temperatures, deep conductivity, present permafrost thickness and thickness of Type I gas hydrates. Latent heat effects were applied to the model for the entire ice bearing permafrost and Type I hydrate intervals. Modeling for a set of surface temperature forcing during the glacial-interglacial history including the last 14 Myr was performed. Two scenarios of gas formation were considered; case 1: formation of gas hydrate from gas entrapped under deep geological seals and case 2: formation of gas hydrate from gas in a free pore space simultaneously with permafrost formation. In case 1, gas hydrates could have formed at a depth of about 0.9 km only some 1 Myr ago. In case 2, the first gas hydrate formed in the depth range of 290–300 m shortly after 6 Myr ago when the GST dropped from −4.5 °C to −5.5. °C. The gas hydrate layer started to expand both downward and upward subsequently. These models show that the gas hydrate zone, while thinning persists under the thick body of BMB permafrost through the current interglacial warming periods.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".