Evaluation of aerosol direct radiative forcing in MIRAGE
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A variety of measurements have been used to evaluate the treatment of aerosol radiative properties and radiative impacts of aerosols simulated by the Model for Integrated Research on Atmospheric Global Exchange (MIRAGE). The treatment of water uptake in MIRAGE agrees with laboratory measurements, and the growth of aerosol extinction with relative humidity in MIRAGE simulations agrees with field measurements. The simulated frequency of relative humidity near 100% is about twice that of analyzed relative humidity. When the analyzed relative humidity is used to calculate aerosol water uptake in MIRAGE, the simulated aerosol optical depth agrees with most surface measurements after cloudy conditions are filtered out and differences between model and station elevations are accounted for, but simulated optical depths are too low over Brazil and central Canada. Simulated optical depths are mostly within a factor of 2 of satellite estimates, but are too high off the east coasts of the United States and China and too low off the coast of West Africa and in the Arabian Sea. The simulated single‐scatter albedo is consistent with surface measurements. MIRAGE correctly simulates a larger Ångström exponent near regions with emissions of submicron particles and aerosol precursor gases, and a smaller exponent near regions with emissions of coarse particles. The simulated sensitivity of radiative forcing to aerosol optical depth is consistent with estimates from measurements. The simulated direct forcing is within the uncertainty of estimates from measurements in the North Atlantic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".