Initial Distribution and Interannual Decrease of Suspended Sediment in a Two‐Basin Lake Following a Massive Mine Tailings Spill: Quesnel Lake, BC, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract On 4 August 2014, a tailings dam failure at Mount Polley Mine in central British Columbia led to the largest short‐term release of mine waste into a lake ever recorded. Once released by the breach, slurry entered the smaller of Quesnel Lake’s two basins, called the West Basin, from which the lake drains northwest into the Quesnel River. An estimated 38,000 ± 11,000 tonnes of fine solids remained suspended in the West Basin on 10 September 2014, 37 days postspill. This decreased to within background levels (<300 tonnes) by June 2015, by which time ∼4,000 tonnes of sediment had flowed from the West Basin into the Quesnel River, and ∼31,000 tonnes had been transported east into the main basin, the direction opposed to the mean hydraulic gradient. Here, we evaluate sediment transport in Quesnel Lake following the Mount Polley tailings dam spill. We apply conservation of mass in two ways: using data collected between 12 August 2014 and 15 October 2020 to estimate suspended sediment mass and mass flows into and out of the West Basin; and using one‐ and two‐basin completely mixed models. Suspended sediment concentrations were highly elevated through the first three seasons postspill, then fluctuated within a gradually decreasing, seasonal cycle. The observed mass trend and an analytical mass balance model of a simplified, two‐basin system suggest that suspended sediment mass will fall to below the median prespill mass by 7 ± 5 years postspill.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".