ToxTree: Descriptor-based machine learning models to predict hERG and Nav1.5 cardiotoxicity
Bibliographic record
Abstract
<title>Abstract</title> Drug-mediated blockade of the voltage-gated potassium channel(hERG) and the voltage-gated sodium channel (Nav1.5) can lead to severe cardiovascular complications. This rising concern has been reflected in the drug development arena, as the frequent emergence of cardiotoxicity from many approved drugs led to either discontinuing their use or, in some cases, their withdrawal from the market. Here, we introduce two robust 2D descriptor-based QSAR predictive models for both hERG and Nav1.5 liability predictions. The machine learning models were trained for predicting the potency to each channel using multiclass classification at three different potency cut-offs (i.e. 1µM, 10µM, and 30µM). The ToxTree-hERG Classifier, a pipeline of Random Forest models, was trained on a large curated dataset of 8380 unique molecular compounds. Whereas ToxTree-Nav1.5 Classifier, a pipeline of kernelized SVM models, was trained on a large manually curated set of 1550 unique compounds retrieved from both ChEMBL and PubChem publicly available bioactivity databases. The hERG model yielded a multiclass accuracy of Q4 = 74.5% and a binary classification performance of Q2 = 93.2%, sensitivity = 98.7%, specificity = 75%, MCC = 80.3%, and a CCR = 86.8% on an external test set of N = 499 compounds. The proposed hERG inducer outperformed most metrics of the state-of-the-art published models and other existing tools. Additionally, we are introducing the first Nav1.5 liability predictive model achieving a Q4 = 74.9% and a binary classification of Q2 = 86.7% with MCC = 71.2% and F1 = 89.7% evaluated on an external test set of 173 unique compounds.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".