Predicted Rainfall, Surface Runoff and Water Yield Responses to Climate Change in the Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Expected changes in temperature, rainfall, water yield and surface runoff dynamics under RCP 8.5 were estimated in the Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand, using outputs of five regional climate models. Observed temperatures and precipitations were downscaled using a combination of quantile mapping and nearest neighbour methods. The SWAT model was used to estimate changes in hydroclimatic variables in both the near-term (2006-2050) and long-term (2051-2099) temporal frames. All models predicted higher temperatures in the future (28.7-30.4°C) compared to the historical situation (28.0-28.3°C). The patterns of maximum temperature from most models were shifted one month earlier but there was no significant change for minimum temperature. Disagreement between models could be found in projected precipitations for the short term, but most of them pointed to an increase in rainfall in the long term, especially for maximum rainfalls ranging from 1,637 to 1,947 mm. CNRM-CM5 presented large differences in the future rainfalls compared to other models. Surface runoff/water yield significantly increased by 14%/17% in the long-term following the same trend as rainfalls with a slight change in the short-term.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".