Surveillance for Lyme disease in Canada, 2009–2019
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Background: Lyme disease (LD) is a multisystem infection that can affect the skin, heart, joints and nervous system. In Canada, the incidence of LD cases has increased over the past decade making this a disease of public health concern. The objective of this study is to summarize the epidemiology of LD cases reported in Canada from 2009 through 2019. Methods: Incidence over time, case classification (confirmed and probable), seasonal and geographic distribution, demographic and clinical characteristics of reported LD cases were determined. Logistic regression was used to explore potential demographic risk factors for the occurrence of LD. Results: During 2009-2019, a total of 10,150 LD cases were reported by the provinces to the Public Health Agency of Canada, of which 7,242 (71.3%) were confirmed and 2,908 (28.7%) were probable cases. The annual count increased from 144 in 2009 to 2,634 in 2019, mainly due to an increase in locally acquired infections, from 65.3% to 93.6%, respectively. The majority of cases (92.1%) were reported from three provinces: Ontario (46.0%); Nova Scotia (28.0%); and Québec (18.1%). Most of the locally acquired cases (74.0%) were reported in the summer months of June (20.0%), July (35.4%) and August (18.6%). The highest incidence rates (cases per 100,000 population) were in children aged 5-9 years (45.0) and in adults aged 65-69 years (74.3), with 57.3% of all reported cases occurring among males. The most common presenting symptoms were single erythema migrans rash (75.1%) and arthritis (34.1%). The frequency of reported clinical manifestations varied among age groups and seasons with erythema migrans and arthritis at presentation reported more frequently in children than older patients. Conclusion: The results of this report highlight the continued emergence of LD in Canada and the need for further development and implementation of targeted awareness campaigns designed to minimize the burden of LD.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".