Stepping-stones and Mediators of Pandemic Expansion—A Context for Humans as Ecological Super-spreaders
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Humans represent ecological super-spreaders in the dissemination and introduction of pathogens. These processes, consistent with the dynamics of the Stockholm paradigm, are exemplified in the origin and globalized distributions of SARS-CoV-2 since initial recognition in central Asia during 2019 and 2020. SARS-like viruses are not widespread in mammals but appear widespread in chiropterans. Bats are isolated ecologically from most other assemblages of mammals in terrestrial systems. Humans may be the stepping-stone hosts for broad global dissemination and wider infection (given the opportunity) among diverse assemblages of mammals in which host and viral capacity are compatible. Human globalization mediated insertion in global ecosystems along primary and secondary pathways initially with localized to regional circulation across continents. Origins and persistence of cycles involving variants and viral transmission among other mammals and the potential for secondary exposure (retrocolonization) of people occurs on multidirectional pathways. Humans were responsible for the initial breakdown in ecological isolation of the virus that facilitated colonization events from chiropterans to other mammals. In the absence of these human drivers, environmental or ecological interfaces (boundary zones among habitats) limiting the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 are unlikely to have been crossed, leaving a diverse assemblage of SARS-like viruses (Sarbecovirus) remaining relatively hidden and isolated in southeast Asia.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.007 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".