In the Pursuit of Synchrony: Northward Shifts in Western Spruce Budworm Outbreaks in a Warming Environment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Outbreaks of western spruce budworm ( Choristoneura freemani Freeman) in Douglas-fir [ Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] forests of western Canada have shifted northward in recent decades. Using forest health survey data collected during the previous century (1909 to 2011) to assess the pattern of range shifts, we found that outbreaks have rapidly shifted to higher latitudes and elevations while gradually retracting from the southern and western portions of its range. Given that the survival of western spruce budworm is affected by access to developing buds, we tested the prediction that this shift was associated with climate change-induced alterations in synchrony between budworm larval emergence and Douglas-fir bud development. We simulated the dates of larval emergence and host budburst annually from 1901 to 2011 using existing phenology models and long-term weather data. Over the last century, the timing of larval emergence in relation to budburst has converged toward optimal synchrony at higher latitudes and elevations, while diverging at lower latitudes and elevations. Shifting synchrony arises from differential responses to temperature by the insect and its host tree; both are reliant upon degree day accumulation, but Douglas-fir bud development is putatively dependent upon an additional photoperiodic threshold. Thus, the potential for warming to cause directional shifts in phenological matching between early season folivores and their host trees may be contingent upon the degree to which each depends on different components of their environments for their development.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".