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Record W4281704332 · doi:10.2118/0422-0080-jpt

Technology Focus: History Matching and Forecasting (April 2022)

2022· article· en· W4281704332 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Chris Carpenter

Bibliographic record

VenueJournal of Petroleum Technology · 2022
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEngineering
TopicReservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsDeconvolutionPetroleum engineeringCoalbed methaneComputer scienceTight gasKalman filterNormalization (sociology)Field (mathematics)Natural gas fieldHydraulic fracturingOperations researchMathematical optimizationIndustrial engineeringGeologyAlgorithmNatural gasArtificial intelligenceEngineeringCoalMathematics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

This year’s history matching and forecasting selections, made by reviewer Gopi Nalla of DeGolyer and MacNaughton, reflect the importance of accurate and innovative methodology in the approach toward development of unconventional or challenging plays, from tight oil to highly heterogeneous gas fields to coalbed methane. The authors of paper URTEC 208352 evaluate and compare the performance of rate-normalization and pressure-deconvolution techniques for both synthetic and tight-oil examples. While the synopsis is devoted mostly to the authors’ work in applying these techniques to synthetic cases, much of the complete paper is devoted to tight-oil examples. Ultimately, the authors recommend the pressure-deconvolution approach generally. In paper SPE 207933, the authors apply an integrated approach of using reservoir pressure/gas compressibility (P/Z) calculations to obtain a field gas initially in place (FGIIP) estimation that is then incorporated into an integrated asset model. The technique is applied to a giant onshore gas field. The authors conclude that the new FGIIP estimation can be applied as a reference to re-review the static modeling legacy and to narrow static modeling uncertainties, leading to reliable forecasting and more-efficient field development. An application of the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother to a scenario involving horizontal coalbed-methane wells for a low-permeability field in Australia is the subject of paper URTEC 208291. A forecast study was conducted to validate the history-matched ensemble, with the results showing a good match of 12 months of the new production data not used in history matching, highlighting the robust prediction capabilities of the presented approach. SPE papers continue to a be a vital resource for industry professionals; arguably, such work is more important than ever as the industry and the world adjusts to new modes of collaboration and realities in both the office and the field. I invite you to read the full text of these papers on OnePetro and to find further recent works that advance the literature of this specialized but critical Tech Focus topic. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. URTEC 208361 - Effect of Relative Permeability on Modeling of Shale Oil and Gas Production by Hamid Behmanesh, University of Calgary, et al. SPE 204835 - Successful Case Study of Machine-Learning Application To Streamline and Improve History-Matching Process for Complex Gas-Condensate Reservoirs in Hai Thach Field, Offshore Vietnam by Son Hoang, Bien Dong Petroleum Operating Company, et al. SPE 207855 - Unleashing the Potential of Relative Permeability Using Artificial Intelligence by Abdur Rahman Shah, Schlumberger, et al.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.461
Threshold uncertainty score0.627

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0020.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.014
GPT teacher head0.224
Teacher spread0.210 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations0
Published2022
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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