The Impact of Fiscal Rules on the Fiscal Deficit for Ten Countries of the European Union -Empirical Analysis for the Period 1995-2020
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper analyzes whether fiscal rules impact improved budget performance and fiscal discipline in the ten EU nations with the largest average fiscal deficit from 1995 to 2020. Fiscal performance will be reflected through the fiscal deficit adjusted for cyclical economic periods. The independent variables are real long-term interest rates, fiscal rules, public debt (expressed as a percentage of GDP), government effectiveness, and government spending (expressed as a percentage of GDP). The methodology used consists of empirical panel data through the OLS econometric model. With this model we have analyzed the responsiveness of the fiscal deficit, which have applied fiscal rules, by incorporating in the model other factors as well. The empirical results shows that fiscal rules, public debt, government effectiveness, and government spending statistically significantly impact the fiscal deficit. At the same time, the real long-term interest rate did not reach the level of statistical significance based on the model results.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".