Predicting Emerald Ash Borer Adult Emergence and Peak Flight Activity in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The invasive emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennisFairmaire; Coleoptera: Buprestidae) has killed tens of millions of ash (Fraxinus spp.)trees across North America.A. planipenniswas first detected in Winnipeg, Manitoba in 2017 and has the potential to become a serious threat to the city's ash canopy which accounts for ~30% of the public tree inventory. The goal of this study was to predict when adultA. planipennisemergence and peak activity would occur in Winnipeg to help logistical planning for the implementation of a city-wide management program. The management program would focus on detection and limiting the spread of the beetle with the objective of preserving ash trees as long as possible allowing for more proactive management of the EAB infestation. To predict adult emergence and peak activity ofA. planipennis, we used local weather station data to calculate the number of degree-days accumulated in each year for the 1970–2019 period using three different degree-day accumulation models. Developmental thresholds forA. planipenniswere derived from previous North American studies. The estimated mean emergence dates for the 50-year period were June 14 ± 8.5 days (double sine model), June 14 ± 8.5 days (single sine model), and June 19 ± 9.1 days (standard model) whereas the peak activity dates were July 16 ± 8.8 days (double sine model), July 17 ± 8.7 days (single sine model), and July 21 ± 9.4 days (standard model). Meteorological records indicate that temperatures in the Winnipeg region have increased over the study period. However, our predicted emergence dates do not significantly differ over the 50 years examined in the study, although estimated peak activity dates are significantly earlier, suggesting that EAB movement may benefit from climate change. The results from this study will provide managers with information regarding the temporal behavior ofA. plannipennisin Winnipeg allowing for improved timing of control measures and monitoring, thereby extending the projected life span of a significant ash tree population within the Winnipeg urban region. The management model developed for Winnipeg could serve as an example for other locations in the prairie region of North America.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".