Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Extreme weather events caused by intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones can have destructive impacts on infrastructure, society, and environment. Forecasting extreme weather continues to present challenges. In this study, we consider possible external factors that can lead to severe weather. It has been shown that significant weather events, including explosive extratropical cyclones [1,2], rapid intensification of tropical cyclones [3], and heavy rainfall causing floods and flash floods [4,5] tend to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes. To further support these results, we use the NOAA Storm Prediction Center database of tornadoes in the superposed epoch analysis to study the occurrence of tornado outbreaks relative to arrival time of solar wind disturbances caused by solar activity. This includes solar flares that can launch coronal mass ejections [6], coronal holes that are sources of high-speed streams, and high-density plasma adjacent to the heliospheric current sheet where the interplanetary magnetic field reverses its polarity [7]. Solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system generates globally propagating atmospheric gravity waves [8,9] that can reach the troposphere with attenuated amplitudes but are subject to amplification upon over-reflection in the troposphere. These atmospheric gravity waves can trigger/release moist instabilities leading to convection and latent heat release, which is the energy driving the storms [10]. [1] Prikryl P., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 149, 219–231, 2016. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2016.04.002 [2] Prikryl P., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 171, 94–10, 2018. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.07.023 [3] Prikryl P., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 183, 36-60, 2019. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.12.009 [4] Prikryl P., et al., Ann. Geophys. 39 (4), 769–93, 2021. doi:10.5194/angeo-39-769-2021 [5] Prikryl P., et al., Atmosphere 12 (9), 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091186. [6] Gopalswamy N., Geosci. Lett. 3(8), 2016. doi: 10.1186/s40562-016-0039-2 [7] Tsurutani B.T., et al., J. Geophys. Res. 121. 10130–10156, 2016. doi:10.1002/2016JA022499 [8] Mayr H.G., et al., Space Sci. Rev. 54, 297–375, 1990. doi:10.1007/BF00177800 [9] Mayr H.G., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 104, 7–17, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.08.001 [10] Prikryl P., et al., Ann. Geophys. 27, 31–57, 2009. doi:10.5194/angeo-27-31-2009
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".