COVID-EENet: Predicting Fine-Grained Impact of COVID-19 on Local Economies
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on economies is fundamental to tailor the responses of the governments to recover from the crisis. In this paper, we present a novel approach to assessing the economic impact with a large-scale credit card transaction dataset at a fine granularity. For this purpose, we develop a fine-grained economic-epidemiological modeling framework COVID-EENet, which is featured with a two-level deep neural network. In support of the fine-grained EEM, COVID-EENet learns the impact of nearby mass infection cases on the changes of local economies in each district. Through the experiments using the nationwide dataset, given a set of active mass infection cases, COVID-EENet is shown to precisely predict the sales changes in two or four weeks for each district and business category. Therefore, policymakers can be informed of the predictive impact to put in the most effective mitigation measures. Overall, we believe that our work opens a new perspective of using financial data to recover from the economic crisis. For public use in this urgent problem, we release the source code at https://github.com/kaist-dmlab/COVID-EENet.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".