Documentation and Prediction of Increasing Groundwater Chloride in the Twin Cities, Minnesota
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We provide a comprehensive overview of historic chloride concentrations in the groundwater of the Twin Cities metropolitan area (TCMA) in Minnesota, in order to define the extent of chloride contamination, due primarily to the seasonal application of deicing salt to roadways. Data collected from 1278 wells between 1965 and 2020 are representative of the major aquifers underlying the TCMA and establish a regional natural background chloride concentration of less than 10 mg/L. However, 55% of all measurements (1616 of 2943) are above 10 mg/L, with the highest concentrations found within the uppermost Quaternary aquifers. Chloride concentrations in underlying bedrock aquifers are negatively correlated with the thickness and clay composition of overlying materials. Most chloride measurements (92%) remain below chronic exposure limits set by state and federal authorities. Historical trends indicate that, if the current imbalance between chloride inputs and outflows persists, chloride concentrations in TCMA aquifers will surpass regulatory thresholds by midcentury as surface waters and Quaternary aquifer waters migrate into underlying bedrock aquifers. Most wells in this study are monitored annually, making it impossible to detect important sub-annual fluctuations of chloride concentration that can exceed 40%.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".